IAF and MMRCA Conundrum

10 Apr
2013

IAF requires 126 MMRCA (Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft) for modernization. Such a large deal is not without its set of complications. One of the complications for the American Boeing and Lockheed Martin was, going up against a consortium of equally worthy opponents.

The Americans can claim to have better technology and product but the truth could be different. The American planes have been seen the most action and there is a lot of marketing and testing material that highlight its technical aspects but the decision of the Indian government was not surprising as there is a marked change from appeasement of strategic partners in a political set up.

One has to look at the deal and what the Americans brought to the table. The American companies are restricted by their own International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR). Also the sales to India would be government to government. This would mean the Indian government would have to sign the agreements such as:

End Use Monitoring Agreement (EUMA)

Communications Interoperability and Security Memorandum of Agreement (CIS MoA) and

Mutual Logistic Support Agreement (MLSA)

The Indian government and its political and bureaucratic set up is not too comfortable signing these agreements for all kinds of defense business with the US government. This was one of the major handicaps that the American companies had when they joined the race for the 126 MMRCA (Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft) required by the Indian Air Force.

Indian defense set up needed these planes but the restrictive agreements of US government were always a deterrent.

One can point the fact that India has signed the End Use Monitoring Agreement (EUMA) in 2009 and that cannot be held as a cause. One has to look at the products India has acquired from US for the agreement to be used as a whip. The most visible was the 10 C-17 Globemasters (with the option to buy 6 more) from Boeing that comes to one’s mind.

The Globemasters were never brought with Pakistan in mind. These behemoths are to bolster the border regions and air force bases close to the Line of Actual Control (LAC) shared with China. With their short runway take off capability, these large planes were never meant for a war or supply capability for the border regions close to Pakistan but the high altitudes and hilly regions close to the Chinese border where India has recently activated 4 air force bases.

The deal for the 126 MMRCA (Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft) has far more strategic importance for India than appeasing the political and business interests of USA as there could be a very real need for these machines in a low intensity surgical strike against Pakistan, if required and having American made planes would make the act a violation and could sour the Indian-American relationship to the times of the Cold War where there was no trust between the two governments.

It is also interesting to note that Indian government has played out this deal so strategically. The decision looks to have two parties having a larger say, the Indian Air Force (IAF) and the Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO) than the usual political chaos that surrounds such sensitive and large deals.

The French government, in its bid to win the contract, has cleared full technology transfer of the Dassault Rafale to India, including that of the RBE2-AA Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar which includes the full transfer of all software source codes. This aspect can be the game changer for Rafale as this allows Indian scientists to re-programme the radar or any sensitive equipment if needed. Without the software source codes, the IAF would have to specify mission parameters to foreign manufacturers to enable configuration of their radar, seriously compromising security in the process and being stuck with limitations.

The other plane in the race is the Eurofighter Typhoon manufactured by EADS. EADS has invited India to become a partner of the Eurofighter Typhoon programme if the Typhoon wins the contract, and will be given technological and development participation in future tranches of the Typhoon. EADS being a consortium of companies from different countries may have limitations when it comes to sharing technology due to various governments being involved. Also there is no clarity on what kind of collaboration they expect from India and if EADS has any future development plans for its planes and the possible timeline for the same.

The EADS Typhoon promised India access to the research and production of future tranches of the Eurofighter Typhoon. The question that should be asked has to be asked is when will the research and development and production of the next tranche of the Typhoon begin. The present tranche has to age in terms of technology or put a profit on the books of EADS to warrant the initiation of the next tranche of Typhoon. This is not going to happen in the near future considering the technology of the plane, the economy of the region and that there are no plans by any country other than India to invest in a major airforce overhaul in the immediate future.

The complex business decisions and fungible timelines on the future development of the Eurofighter made it a handicapped participant. The thought that helped shortlist EADS and Dassault Rafale when extended, clearly gave the French an upper hand in the deal. The deal sweeteners are extensive and also the past and future deals of the French with the Indian government such as the Mirage planes and the Scorpene submarine deal made the French better poised to win this deal.

The other reason this deal went to Dassault Rafale is due to another problem the Indian defense forces are facing. The Tejas Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) is the replacement for the aging MiG-21 that the Indian Air Force (IAF) flies. The Kaveri engine was to be the one that was powering the LCA but the engine has not performed to expectations and is still being tested and worked on.

The LCA is now being powered by engines supplied by General Electric (GE). With Dassault Rafale, if the Indian government is able to get access to the Snecma M88 engine and its variants, it would be a huge jump in the ability to produce and replicate engine technologies and apply the technology to develop newer engines indigenously.

With such a deal suggestions come in fast, on what is a better choice. The suggestions are from companies who competed but were not shortlisted and also external experts and media. One suggestion was that the American contenders were better. This is probably true but strategic requirement and long term investment required India to tap into a promise of full access to technology. How much India gets out of the deal is still open to debate but that is the nature of most businesses and a country’s strategic needs are no different. I think the line Ronald Reagan used in reference to ones allies is most apt here; trust but verify.

India has to trust that it will get 100% technology transfer that France promised but the verification will take some amount of time.

The US companies walked into the tender process with serious limitations that the US government had imposed on technology transfer. For a better perspective, the Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor, the frontline stealth aircraft in operation for the US is not sold to the UK, an all weather ally of the US, due to technology transfer and export restrictions imposed by US Congress. Today the production of the F-22 Raptor has been stopped as the F-35 Lightening Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) is undergoing flight trials for induction into the US air force.

Much like the Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor, the Boeing F/A-18 Super Hornet and Lockheed Martin F-16IN Super Viper could not have transferred some of the technologies to India due to technology transfer and export restrictions imposed by US Congress.

There is a question on why the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) was not taken into consideration. There are 2 reasons for it:

1. It is yet to be inducted into service and is behind schedule and

2. It is a single engine aircraft

The other most commonly raised doubt is why India did not wait for a fifth generation fighter aircraft. India is already part of a deal with Russia to develop a fifth generation fighter aircraft. The Sukhoi PAK FA is to be developed as a single and double seater fighter aircraft and is a development collaboration between Russia and India. This gives India access the Sukhoi PAK FA and its variants.

The Rafale is expected to replace the aging MiG-21s and the Mirage 2000s. The Rafale and the Tejas LCA are expected to the add strength to the IAF.

In the long run the deal is expected to increase the indigenous production capability of India.

Design and Manufacturing

24 Mar
2013

The concept of design in manufacturing has been around since we started making machines to assist in mass production processes. Machines were built and created with various aspects in mind but 2 of the most important aspects were:

  1. The look and presentation of the final products and
  2. Safety of the operator

The concepts of design found its place in the world today because of a different revolution. Mobile revolution has brought the spotlight on the need for a good design. The spotlight now is not merely focused on designs of mobile phones but all products that we see and use.

Design in the commercial space is a necessary requirement but was invisible until the mobile revolution.

Even within the mobile space one cannot ignore or diminish the contribution of Apple and its iPhones to design concepts. Apple started the design wars of mobile phone and has been very successful in holding that niche.

Samsung entered the design wars with its Galaxy range of smartphones but it faces being upstaged in the design front by companies like Sony, HTC and Google (Nexus).

Samsung has been dependent on plastic as a material for its design requirements and has had changes made to its shape that has not gone down well with many.

Apple, HTC, Google (Nexus) and Sony are experimenting with metal and glass in their mobile phone designs.

This design war was inevitable. In the days to come newer materials will become the basis of the design war.

The design wars are not limited to any particular industry. It’s come into the forefront due to a change in consumer spending. From mobile phones to cars and even medical devices, design is one of the important factors to consider.

A good design though is not a valid reason for not having cutting edge hardware and software. Customers are demanding cutting edge hardware and software and a good design in a single package and there is little hope that this demand will die away anytime soon.

Social Media and the Like Button

19 Mar
2013

Since the Facebook IPO there has been a fall in its stock price and there have been numerous issues that have been highlighted.

The biggest concern that has emerged is the number of users of Facebook and the consolidated user numbers being classified as customers or buyers. Every ‘like’ from this user base was used to show popularity and were pumped up as a potential customer.

This was the problem in the entire social media space but it got highlighted due to the reason that Facebook went ahead with its public offering.

The strategy to promote the number of users and likes resembles the strategy of the past where the derivatives industry used the underlying principal to describe itself and appear bigger than it really was. That strategy ended up in more regulation being introduced against derivatives industry and products and irrational fear being instilled into majority of the people who were unfamiliar with the industry as a whole.

In the social media space the question that was most asked was how to leverage the number of users and likes.

The problem with hitting the like button is fairly evident. I would like a particular brand but if it gets too intrusive and enthusiastic I would not like it cluttering my page or mailbox and would go and unlike it. Also there is an expectation from big brands that they discount their product or services for continued brand loyalty.

For eg: if I like Levis as a brand and have liked it on Facebook, I would not turn into sure sale unless I get my pound of flesh from the transaction of liking it. I would expect a discount from the company the next time I decide to buy a pair of jeans.

A smart brand will entice and induce the customer to spend that amount earlier than later if it’s not a purchase bound by time constraints. I could buy my pair of jeans anytime in the year or choose to not buy at all. A discount offer will work if the discount is used by the intended audience but if the discount offer is not accepted and used, then the company and brand still stay at the same level of income.

The offer for discount should be large enough to show notional savings to the buyer but also not impact the bottom line of the company.

The issue that follows is how to deploy and deliver such discounts. In India, the easiest way to do it is by means of the mobile phones and linking all exclusive stores to able to redeem the discount.

This entire process is not without its pitfalls. One of the pitfalls is the enthusiasm of the company or brand is to clutter the Facebook timeline and the other is to bombard the people who liked the company or brands pages.

The other more crucial point is how one takes this branding and advertising exercise away from the Facebook, Twitter and the social media platform into other platforms. The reason this is necessary is we need a contingency plan in the event that the social media platform changes in future but the customers are always going to be around.

Newer platforms may come around but those could take time to mature and given the fickle nature of customers, it’s best if brands and companies have a strategy to engage with customers beyond Facebook and Twitter in a direct manner. This could also help them get direct inputs and insights about customer requirements and likes and dislikes.

Larger the base of the customers, the better is the detail in the data collected from them without the biases of a consultant in between and the cost of collecting such data is also kept low. This helps brands customize better and move faster when trends change.

If one pays attention to the pitfalls of engagement with consumers on social media platforms and other direct contact methods such as cluttering and over-discounting, it could turn into a hefty profit making machine that adds strength to the bottom line and keeps the brand recall fresh in consumer minds.

The flip side of hitting the like button is that a consumer does it merely as an instinct but there is no further thought or action linked with it. For eg: I could like a company or brand on Facebook but I am not interested in buying its products or services. I hit the like button merely on reflex without any thought about whether I truly like it or endorse it.

This action cripples the validity of the data and distorts the true picture. The best option in such a situation would be to correlate the total data with the number of people who use the company or brand’s promotional schemes and track it using cell phone numbers, e-mail addresses or other identifiers to be able to understand the customer base and their likes and dislikes.

If the company or brand allows the transfer of these promotional offers across cell phone users, then they widen the net of data and customers but it gets tougher to track all of them in a more detailed manner.

This customer interaction will drive future sales but as interaction grows so will the complaints and trouble of tracking the users and solving the customer complaints. The questions that really needs answered are:

What is the true worth of this exercise and is it worth the trouble and investment?

The true worth may not be easy to assess but the related trouble is worth it. The key is to watch the investment made into the exercise as a whole and not let the investment exceed the return by taking on worthwhile trouble but reducing most pain points over a period of time.

India: Manufacturing and the Military-Industrial Complex

18 Mar
2013

The manufacturing sector has been a bit of a concern for India since 2 decades. Compared to the service sector growth, the manufacturing sector has faltered and not found a firm footing.

One of the primary reasons that this has happened is the inability of successive Indian government to pull the private manufacturers into the defence production segment. Though it’s clearly seen in the case of United States that private contractors have helped the US manufacturing take a huge leap before and after the WW II and the Cold War, India has not been able to replicate the model effectively.

Defense manufacturing is one of the most growth oriented segment for Indian manufacturing but private manufacturers in India do not have any concrete plans to exploit it effectively. There are small and medium enterprises in the fray and low value work that is given to private enterprises by the government firms but the larger chunk of defence requirement is purchased outright or produced by public sector firms.

The private manufacturers in India are capable of providing the requirement in conventional weaponry for the Indian armed forces but there are real and valid reasons for many of them not entering the segment.

The primary reason is that there is no level playing field for Indian manufacturers in the defence procurement process. The procurement process has 3 sections:

  1. Outright purchase or buy
  2. Buy and make using licenses and technology transfers and
  3. Make and build indigenously

The second reason is that there is no support for research and development outside of the public sector firms.

The third is the lack of clarity on requirements of a product and lack of clarity causes most private manufacturers to defer production and research and development in defense manufacturing space.

Given a clear mandate of requirements and supported in research and development with an equal playing field, many Indian firms would be able to compete with global companies for conventional weapons supply to the Indian armed forces.

The third point of the procurement process of making and building indigenously is the most neglected with respect to the local Indian private sector participation and research and development spend.

It is difficult to accept the reasoning that Indian private sector does not have the capacity to make conventional weaponry and conduct further research and development to improve on past designs and produce new designs and cutting edge technologies.

The indigenous private sector military-industrial complex can grow if the Indian government is ready to:

  1. Support research and development activities
  2. Clearly specify requirements and
  3. Buying the products produced indigenously

The private sector military-industrial complex development holds the key to achieving growth in manufacturing as a whole and India could get on the road to be a defense equipment exporter.

Social Media and Social Change

10 Mar
2013

Social media has become a medium for showcasing offline and real time advertising efforts. Advertisements may be funny, serious or socially relevant but most brands want to exploit all advertising avenues; online and offline.

While the online social media space is growing, there is also an increasing need to be innovative in getting your message across in both mediums.

The offline (television, print and outdoor ads) and online (social media) mediums of advertising are competing for the larger share in advertising budgets but the truth is that the offline medium has a larger role to play in places where there is limited presence of the internet.

The offline medium has in a way cannibalised on the online medium with respect to budgets and spending by extending the life of advertisements that were created predominantly for the offline space.

The creativity in the advertisement in the offline advertising space acts as a catalyst and extends the life of the campaign in the online space and social media channels fuel its spread.  The cohabitation of the offline-online space has helped the offline advertising effort monetise its investment better using the online medium as a foundation.

The Lifebuoy campaign during the 2013 Kumbh Mela in India is a very good example of the offline-online mix of advertising.

The subsequent use of social media to spread the campaign to areas and people who may have not been touched by the offline campaign is clearly evident.

It is a simple idea to reach out to millions by putting a question on Indian bread or Roti.

The question was merely asking if the person has washed his or her hands with Lifebuoy.

The simplicity of the question and the opportune timing of asking the question, before the person started eating, was the brilliance of the campaign.

Sharing that campaign premise on YouTube was the next step in the brilliance. A purely offline advertisement campaign done in a limited manner has gained a semblance of immortality because of the power and reach of social media.

The other campaign was for Zara, a Tapas Bar in Chennai in association with Chennai Traffic Police against drinking and driving.

The prank was played on patrons of the bar who decided to drink and drive.

Yama, the god of death played a role to get people to realize the dangers of drinking and driving.

The out of the box thinking gets the message through to people and it also was able to advertise the message of all the 3 stakeholders that have something to gain from the advertisement:

  1. Chennai Traffic Police
  2. Zara (The Tapas Bar) and lastly,
  3. The service provider who provides the drivers to the patrons

Both these advertisements have the story in them to have a long run on social media.

The reason that these campaigns would be very successful on social media platforms is because they are simple, effective and directly engages the concerned audience.

The initial methods of each of these campaigns differ. The reasons for the difference are simple:

  1. The Lifebuoy campaign was trying to penetrate deep into the hinterland of India and align itself with its core ideology of being health soap. The social media campaign was to build on the alignment of its core ideology and also reach mature urban centres and cover the entire Indian market
  2. The Zara campaign has immense recall value across the urban centres  and urban people of India where drunk driving is a large problem

Both the campaigns cater to different audiences but the use of social media to talk about the issues and engage with audience directly is where the campaigns plays on the strengths of social media to bring about social change.

Social Media and Digital Footprint

2 Mar
2013

Digital footprint of an individual was being documented since the internet came into being. Social media merely facilitated the sharing of personal information.

Who would have imagined that one day we would willingly share our personal information with invisible people on the internet?

On the social media platforms people willingly document personal lives and share personal details.

Systems are increasingly becoming networked and personal data collection pervades almost every action we take.

A common list of places where our personal data is collected and documented:

  1. Social Media (Facebook / LinkedIn / Google Plus / Twitter / Blogs / YouTube)
  2. Bank Accounts
  3. Credit Cards
  4. Photographs
  5. Cell Phones
  6. Tax and Financial Records
  7. Birth certificates
  8. Driving licences
  9. School and College Records

There could be many more places where personal data is collected that are not listed here.

Information is the new age gold and in the era of social media, digital footprints provide insights into individual lives and population clusters.

The truth for the present is we cannot disengage from many of these services because we use some of these services very regularly and some are very important to us in our daily life.

Access to personal data has led to impersonation and identity theft but the real world necessity of some of the services overrides the anonymity aspect. On one hand we ourselves provide access to our personal data but we also place a premium on anonymity.

The questions that arise in this present structure are:

  1. Can we be true ghosts in the system and yet have access to all the services?
  2. How difficult would be to fully disappear from this network and erase ones digital footprint from the internet and social media?
  3. Would it truly impede us in the long run?

Presently it’s fairly easy to track down people we might have known at some point and peek into what is happening in their lives. Though voyeuristic and an invasion of privacy, it is a feature of social media that we have willingly signed up for and accepted as part of our normal lives today.

Value Investing and The Small Investor

26 Feb
2013

When one talks of investing money and making it work for them, the stock markets of the world and value investing concepts enter the picture. The reasons for the stock market to figure as an investment option is due to its superior returns as compared to bank deposits and bonds. Value investing gets its due because it’s a concept that works.

Value investing, made popular by Warren Buffet, is derived from the book Security Analysis by Benjamin Graham and David Dodd. The value investing concept is founded on the premise that everyone is seeking financial security and growth and people will look to the stock market in search of this security.

Investments in the markets happen either directly or indirectly through mutual funds. Over the past few years entering the markets has been made easy. The physical share certificates have been done away with and in its place we have dematerialized and electronic form of shares. This has made it easier to trade and there is far less danger. Earlier share certificates could be forged but this has been overcome due to the electronic form of trading in stocks.

The dematerialized form of shares have made its transfer easier, faster and secure thus reducing the cost and charges of transfer or sale. This benefit has been passed to all to increase market participation. The increased speed of trading and reduced cost has enabled more investors to enter the stock markets. It has also made the stock markets more liquid.

A stock market has different players:

  1. The Market
  2. The Regulator
  3. The Companies
  4. Brokers
  5. Market Analysts, Consultants and Investment Advisors
  6. Day Trader
  7. Investors

For the first time small investor its best to know that stocks and stock market is not a place where you can put your money and forget about it. Stocks do not give regular fixed returns. Good company stocks do give regular dividend but the percentage varies each year. Also some amount of the profits are retained by the company as a reserve for future business plans.

Historically, stocks have given a better rate of return compared with any other investment instrument. Real estate might be a possible exception. Returns on investing from stocks have seen significant gains when one takes a look at the stock markets spread over 5 to 10 year periods though fluctuations are a part of the cycle.

The first time small investor it is better to follow the principles of ‘value investing’ or long term investing expounded by Lord John Maynard Keynes, the eminent economist who was an astute stock market investor and Benjamin Graham and David Dodd, authors of the Security Analysis. Investors would do well to also read The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham. The Intelligent Investor has been called the best book written on investing by Warren Buffett.

The question that remains is how does a small investor decide if he or she should pick up the stock of a company. The following is basic skeletal idea of what an investor needs to do before investing in a stock:

  1. Be able to read and understand a company’s annual and quarterly reports.
  1. Do a SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the company and its businesses.
  1. Analyze the company on the basis of its market share, financial strength, sales, pending order book, cash flows and vulnerability to new entrants and existing competition.
  1. Be patient and invest for the long term. Impatience produces bad decisions and possible loss of value. Temperament is most important when investing.
  1. Regular churning of one’s portfolio has costs in the form of charges and brokerages, other related taxes and capital gains tax if there are any profits. Capital gains tax can be avoided if the stock is held for the long term.
  1. Churning one’s portfolio should not be done with out critically analyzing the stocks one holds.
  1. The devil is in the details. Pay attention and go into the details of a company. Do not let market analysts, brokers, consultants or investment advisors walk you through the maze of information. Blind faith on others advise is not without its share of dangers.
  1. All public limited companies have to file quarterly and yearly accounts. Disclosure norms though stringent by law are not foolproof and often fall short of expectations in the real world. There are problems in terms of transparency and we will, in future, have situations where companies will go bankrupt. The primary motive of expansive disclosures is to reduce speculation based on information gap or false information. Thus information on the public domain has to be regarded carefully
  1. A good company will look at corporate governance and pertinent disclosures with a view towards long term business interest and will look to make things easy with a simple and clear reporting style especially to investors.
  1. Investors have to guard against their greed, laziness, overconfidence and inattention.
  1. Investors need to list out questions and research the answers in depth before investing in stocks. The questions pertain not only to the performance and strength of the company but also encompass the economy of the country and the world and the political climate in general.
  1. To safeguard against the risk one needs to diversify ones holdings. Diversifying ones investments beyond a point though, does not entail risk reduction as there is no reward without commensurate risk.
  1. Resist the urge to follow the crowd blindly. It leads to herding mentality and is as detrimental as regular churning of ones holdings with limited or no study.
  1. The stock market is a group of people and the passions of the the crowd are often strong and contagious enough to make people move from one sector or stock to another in hopes of making a quick profit or recuperate old losses.
  1. The fickle human nature often drives markets to dizzying heights when news flows is consistently positive. When the mood darkens the very same group abandons rationality and every bit of bad news is exaggerated and the markets are pulled down to its knees.
  1. The stock price is just one of the indicators of the value of the stock. Investors have to study the whole picture to decide if the stock is worth its price or not.
  1. Future business valuation is a projection. If the future business is a certainty, the future earnings of the company would have been discounted in the present value of the stock price today.
  1. As investors we are poor decision makers and rarely have the patience to stay invested for a longer period. We are driven by news flows and in the panic make grave mistakes. In such situations greed is lesser enemy than panic.
  1. Information is another important foundation for investing wisely. Today the internet has changed the way we live and work. Countries are not just linked by physical means of transport but also by the information superhighway. For the small investor this is a twin edged sword. The flow of information is faster and has reduced false information from staying around for too long and this has reduced the scope of speculation on false or half-baked information. It has a side effect in terms of there being too much of information being around i.e. an information overload. The excess information has made it difficult for the small investor. The sheer amount of information is quite simply too much to read and analyze. We have to discern what specific information we need to retain and what has to be refused.

The reasons why people enter are quite simple. Either they want to beat inflation, get better returns and save for the future or they want to be part of the money making crowd and are driven to the stock markets hearing the success stories of the people. The lure of a quick easy buck is also one of the big reasons for people to venture into the stock markets.

As humans we are going to make mistakes but investing mistakes can be reduced if we pay attention to where we are investing and why we are ready to take the risk with a particular stock. Emotional decisions have to be avoided when they are related to money. And it would do us well to remember that earning, saving and spending are easier but investing for a secure future in the sunset years takes effort.

India, Urbanization, Media, Social Media and Government Policy – Part 2

1 Jan
2013

This is the second part that analyses the present situation after the protests against corruption and violence against women in India. This is to look at the other side of the coin namely:

The government and politicians and political parties

The police

The judiciary and

The bureaucracy

Government and Politicians And Political Parties

The Indian government reacted in a very traditional manner to the protests against corruption and violence against women.

The entire political setup was caught unaware by the magnitude of protests. Indian politicians are career and family politicians who are used to a sense of entitlement.

Social media and increased urbanization has shattered that entitlement complex. The political setup and the government were not prepared for a clear thinking, logical and a rights aware crowd of youngsters who were filled with disgust in the manner the country was ruled.

There was a clear message to politicians that if they do not work for the greater good then they were not part of the team. The politicians are increasingly facing questions from citizens who have realized that politicians in power are public servants and not dictators or overlords.

The real conundrum that this new wave of citizen movement throws up is the change in equations of coalition politics. Every decision gets highlighted and every minister is under the lens including their past.

The political parties are clinging on to the old models of politics but the parties that embrace a direct connect with the people and adopt transparent policies and attitudes will be handsomely rewarded with the trust of the citizenry.

Most of the politicians and political parties and even the youth wings of political parties are unable to see beyond elections and power. Most of these may have a social media presence but politics precedes pragmatism in the way they connect to common people.

The common citizen, irrespective of caste creed and sex, used the social media networks to band together and manifest his or her anger.

The politicians have long been disconnected from the common citizens of India and have no clue about the psyche of a common Indian. Social media was merely the catalyst in this mix of anger and disgust.

Lack of Think Tanks and Social and Policy Studies

One of the major handicaps of a multi-party and fast urbanizing India is the lack of credible think tanks and social and policy study. Non-partisan or funded by a political party, the think tanks and their studies help channel understandings and could have served as a warning to politicians and governments.

India needs to invest heavily in forming credible think tanks that publish their findings and stay transparent irrespective of their findings. The think tanks have to publish their findings and methodology of research for long term credibility and reputation.

Credible think tanks that publish their findings and methodology of research form the first step to pushing across policy change.

Police

The three arms of the government are the first line of defence for any government in any country. As long as these three are functioning fairly, the government can be assured of peace from its country’s citizens.

In India, the police, judiciary and bureaucracy have to be overhauled completely.

Policing techniques have to be modernized and police personnel have to be better trained. Police fitness has to become an issue the entire police force in India.

Police personnel should not have to fear unwanted transfers for doing their job right and there has to be a mechanism in place to keep transfers transparent and not tainted by whims of politicians and power brokers.

Judiciary

Judiciary in India is fairly free but there is room for improvement. The judiciary is the place where changes in law are to emanate from. Judges and lawyers have to be better informed of new methods of evidence gathering and forensic sciences to be able to deliver justice in an effective and fast manner.

Judiciary has to be freed to be able to point out inefficiencies in laws and suggest remedies for the same.

Bureaucracy

The bureaucracy is closest to the government and it has not been overhauled in a long time. The method of training new IAS, IFS and IPS officers needs to change and match the present times. A training course has to be flexible and be open to change on short notice such that these structures are able to respond to social changes.

Without an overhaul the bureaucracy that holds the hands of every new government is bound to become sluggish and redundant. Over a period of time bureaucracy will be discarded if it does not change and evolve.

The Future

The most important question that the government, politicians, political parties, police, judiciary and bureaucracy must ask is why the youth and citizenry of India are screaming hoarse.

Urbanization and education is one of the biggest causes. Social Media is merely a tool that helped the process acting as a catalyst.

The government, politicians and political parties need to be worried because the increasing social swell is not ready to take empty words as assurances. This social swell is presently carrying candles in protest but this may not always be the case.

Inaction by government, politicians and political parties will increasingly turn violent and eventually it will come to a point where the government will have to use force to quell the crowd and cover up its ineptitude. That precise moment is one that the government, politicians and political parties come in the line of fire.

A smart government, politician and political party would act logically and interact with the crowd and provide solutions that work because action is the only way forward for them.

If government, politicians and political parties think that people forget words uttered by them and most would take empty words and gestures as solutions, they are living in fool’s paradise and have forgotten the lessons from Arab Spring and Syria.

If the government, politicians and political parties believe that they can control crowds by controlling the internet and shutting down train stations, they have no real idea of how India has changed.

The question that the Indian government and politicians and political parties have to ask themselves is what their response or reaction will be if this social change turns violent and the violence is controlled by educated, smart and selfless individuals.

Ordering the police and army to quell it might not be a viable option if one looks at Syria where elements in the army defected to fight alongside the people of Syria.

The Indian or any country government has many choices on how to deal with its citizenry but the only correct choice is good governance.

India, Urbanization, Media, Social Media and Government Policy – Part 1

31 Dec
2012

India is increasingly seeing dissent overflowing on to the streets. The reasons for this are not merely the increasing corruption or lack of sense of security.

If one looks at how the demography of India is presently, there is an increase in the number of young people. This group is driving the economy forward and is more aware and sentient than the previous generation.

New ideas are taking root in this young demography and shaping their opinions.

The question that most social scientists and the government is asking is what changed that this demographic group has become an opinion making force to be reckoned with.

If one looks beyond the protests against corruption and sexual assaults in India and the Arab Spring movement, there are many common denominators.

Internet

When the internet hit the Indian shores and slowly burrowed into the cultural psyche, no one foresaw its true power. It was dismissed as a rich man’s indulgence. It slowly became cheaper to get online and the internet found its way into homes.

The internet helped people share information and connected the globe making it smaller. It influenced the thinking of the people. Awareness regarding lifestyles, rules, rights and political systems all over the world was available to people at their fingertips. All it took was a few key strokes to access.

The concept and ideas related to freedom leapfrogged and as awareness spread among the population they started asking questions that mattered to them most and expected the politicians to answer and act.

Media and News Networks

Before the internet changed the equation, India opened its airwaves and it saw an explosion of news channels that drove the first wave of awareness. It got people talking in colleges and offices and cafes and made people aware of various issues.

The newspapers of the earlier era adapted to match the speed of minute to minute live news channels and took to launching news channels and warmed to the idea of releasing news on the internet.

The entire news media that was linked to any format realized the pervasive power of the internet and established their presence online and wanted to drive interaction with their viewers.

Blogs

Blogs drove the first true wave of expressing ones opinions. They were easy to create but were and are difficult to sustain with quality content.

Blogs became a means to question, express opinions and drive discussions and solutions. The commenting feature of blogs was integrated into online news portals to increase interaction with readers and bring out opinions of masses to the forefront.

Social Media

This became the biggest and most credible source of change in the online world. The power of this source manifested itself in the protests across the globe and it was no different in India.

The protests against corruption and sexual assaults in India and the Arab Spring movement were largely formulated online and manifested offline.

Facebook and Twitter became anchors that attracted people and rallied their voices online and offline. The decibel level of such voices has forced traditional news outlets to pay attention to this swelling crowd and increasing noise.

What Changed?

The above mentioned systems were tools that aided the process of change. The process of change began due to a structural economic and social change in most countries including India.

This process of change is unique for India because it is a diverse, working democracy that embraced liberalization.

Liberalization started the process of rapid urbanization for India.

Urbanization

This term needs a different definition in the present Indian context. Urbanization is the process of information dissemination and the reach of modern media into homes of the citizens in remotest parts of India. It is the access to information in regional languages.

Urbanization is not limited to more people moving to cities but also pertains to the access to education and healthcare for thousands more.

It is the spread of the above mentioned services and tools to every house and a new generation taking those tools to express themselves and educating those that are not exposed to these tools.

The sequences of events that lead to increased pace of urbanization and the development of new tools and systems (Facebook, Twitter, News Channels etc.) have had a domino effect. Knowledge availability and dissemination has increased exponentially.

The other effects that urbanization helped bring forward were the Internet, Media and News Networks, Blogs and Social Media.

Urbanization, in a collective manner, bulldozed the old bastions and is continuing to do the same and bringing about massive and disruptive change in its wake that is making many from the old guard nervous. The old guard may try and cling on to old traditions but it’s a hopeless and losing battle against the juggernaut of urbanization and new social order.

Planned Townships and Urban Planning

17 Dec
2012

India is moving towards urban cities but the urban cities are no longer what they once were. Today, most Indian cities are unplanned and there is increased ghettoization of a different kind. More than a community or religion dictating the ghettos, it is economics that is forming the basis of it.

Smaller communities are holding on to their way of life vehemently denying growth. This denial of growth is not due to the lack of knowledge of the new amenities that come with urbanization and urban planning. It is primarily because of the problems of having to share space with an increasing size of slums and the increased squalor that is becoming a permanent fixture in most Indian cities.

Let us take the example of Mumbai. As a city its cosmopolitan qualities are one part of the city’s features but the city has grown in spurts and there has been no plan to make the city sustainably functional.

There are few features that one desires in the life of a city:

  1. Infrastructure (includes roads and bridges, schools, colleges, hospitals)
  2. Transportation (Public and Private)
  3. Water
  4. Waste Management
  5. Open Spaces
  6. Air Quality
  7. Electricity
  8. Sustainable Model and
  9. Law and Order

When Mumbai first took shape the railway lines in the city defined a transportation system that connected the entire city but as the city took shape it became a place where the development was lopsided and unplanned.

The cities of the future would be better planned if they used the township model where all necessities are available.

For example, consider Mumbai having 20 to 30 large townships with sustainable models of living and each have an internal and external connecting transport and communications system. The townships will have to be growing vertically giving the city enough open spaces with better air quality and ability to handle water harvesting for the entire city in an efficient and optimum manner.

The monorail project could help connect the townships with each other and provide transport within the townships too. The existing bus transportation system and private vehicles could also add to the point to point transport system of the city.

The reasons that these could be the cities of the future is because there will be waste management systems that keep cities clean and the law and order can be effective. In most cities the problem of slums will be addressed effectively with government controlled housing projects that will be brought to life with private builder participation who get permissions to build private and commercial housing projects based on how effectively they provide for housing for lower-income groups.

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